"Bombs, Bargains, and a Strategy That Isn’t One" or “War, Oil, and Unintended Consequences”
Sunday, March 15, 2026
Just read an op-ed piece in The Telegraph entitled Trump’s plan makes perfect sense, and it’s working and I have my own opinions.
The writer opines Trump is doing an “Art of the Deal” with this war in order to wrestle China to the bargaining table. Venezuela, Iran (and even Cuba) have in common the production of cheaper than market rate oil for China so he thinks US strategy is to swoop in to snatch this out from under them (and also make a few bucks in the process along with nabbing the spoils.)
Totally textbook NeoCon 101 with some 1980’s Wall Street tactics mixed in (and very much not why a good chunk of America First MAGAs voted for him– they really don’t like any of this.)
In a logical sense it’s the right idea, provided this were still the Reagan Era with Reagan’s State Department playing full court. But it’s 2026 and this is Donald Trump and his Merry Band of Grifters running the show, snd they haven’t exactly had a good track record on anything so far…
🪖 Instead of lighter but consistent and constant manipulation, we get Pete Hegseth war hawking, and videos of double-tapped schools along with walls of flames and black smoke causing an environmental crisis near Tehran because F rules of engagement, war isn’t supposed to be fair. Umm-hmm. What happened to empowering the Iranian people to change their government? So of course Iran makes good on drone striking anyone and anything involved with US forces in the area and shutting the Strait of Hormuz down like literally every expert on the subject ever has always said, which made gas prices jump over here by a buck and some change per gallon literally overnight.
🐮 This tactic of bull-in-china-shop isn’t winning any friends here. Bombing folks to get a deal never goes right in my limited time on this planet either even when we were mostly playing by the rules. And Reagan, Bush, Obama, and even Trump’s first administration era people would never try anything like this without allies. We have zero compatriots in this latest “excursion” in the Middle east except Israel for any of this. And they are now saying they’re running outta ammo for their defenses. It’s almost like nobody planned anything… But I also remember how COVID was done over here so I have very little faith in whatever our orange president promises.
🐉 My biggest worry vis-a-vis China is what happens if/when we wind up pressing them into using their ultimate trap-card: Taiwan. They can take the whole world hostage with that one due to everything running on microchips forged in Hsinchu factories. Oil is one thing, but watch what happens when nearly everything built gets put on pause because there’s no chips to put in them… And we already have a RAM and GPU shortage thanks to AI and datacenter proliferation.
Also remember, global militaries need silicon too… What’s the plan for that one? China and its government will do whatever it takes to survive– they don’t give a damn about telling their rich folks to run their pockets for the country or get tossed into prison for corruption like we do; they have a singular voice and motivation.
They also are at the forefront of renewable energy and battery technology, so they are more suited to dealing with gas and diesel disruptions on a national level than us too. They might stand to make more money with an oil shortage by getting others to buy their EVs, robots, batteries and solar panels, locking us out of our own markets. That would be the ultimate Uno “reverse, draw 2, skip, uno, and done” move, played right into their hands if we’re not careful. Underestimation and failure to reason deeply is suicide here.